It’s tempting to look at the video of the demonstrations and think that a massive anti-Trump backlash has already begun. In fact, I suspect that virtually all of these demonstrators voted for Clinton, so Trump can and will ignore them without paying much of a price.
If Chuck Schumer were here today, I would give him the following advice:
1. Acknowledge that your control over the political climate is very limited. If we have peace and 4% growth in 2020, Trump is going to be re-elected. You can’t stop that. The success or failure of his administration is not in your hands.
2. Always remember your ultimate objectives. In the short run, that means limiting the damage to the country to the maximum extent possible. In the longer run, it means winning in 2018 and 2020.
3. Don’t forget who your target audience is. Your damage control audience is about ten GOP senators; the rest are beyond your reach. In order to win in 2018 and 2020, you need an energized base and more votes from the center.
4. Deal with trade-offs on a case-by-case basis. If you tack to the center, you run the risk of alienating your base; if you move left, you lose floating voters and moderate GOP senators. Each issue must be treated on its own merits. Just remember, however, that relying on mobilizing a huge army of non-voters simply does not work.
5. Take principled positions, and convince the public that you are fit to govern. Naked opportunism will inspire neither the base nor the floating voters.
With that in mind, how should the Democrats deal with upcoming issues? Here are my thoughts:
1. Is it OK to filibuster the Supreme Court nominee? Yes, because to give in on such an important matter would frustrate and demoralize the base. You can justify your position to moderates by alluding to the treatment of the Garland nomination. The ultimate outcome will be the elimination of the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees, which, in the long run, is appropriate in any event.
2. Should all of Trump’s Cabinet nominees be opposed? No. Some of them are basically OK, and it would make you look irresponsible and obstructionist. Pick your fights with care.
3. Should you collaborate with the GOP on entitlement “reform?” No. Don’t do anything to own this issue. The public is on your side here. If Trump ultimately decides to disregard his promises and betray his working white constituents, that will be on him.
4. Should you give in to GOP coercive tactics on Obamacare? No. There is too much at stake, and the GOP is divided. Don’t do anything to help them out; it will only cost you in the long run.
5. Should you announce your intent to repeal the inevitable regressive tax cut? TBD. It depends on the condition of the country at the time of the next campaign. I would under all circumstances, however, support the reinstatement of the estate tax.