Perhaps our biggest advantage over the Chinese, in the long run, is geography; China has Japan, India, Vietnam, the Koreas, and Russia as neighbors, while we have Mexico and Canada. While our relations with these countries have not always been completely smooth, they have not presented a threat to us for over a hundred years.
Trump’s provocations towards the Mexicans could very well change that equation. Anti-American feeling is going to become a major consideration in Mexican politics. Cooperation on refugee and drug issues is likely to wither, and possibly disappear. The decline in value of the peso will create hardship in Mexico and encourage more illegal immigration. A leftist with an anti-gringo platform could well win the next presidential election. We will consequently be faced with a new, serious, and unnecessary problem right on our doorstep.
Surveys have shown that Trump’s core supporters didn’t really believe that he would build the wall, get Mexico to pay for it, or deport millions of undocumented immigrants. The irony, then, is that the king of “truthful hyperbole” had the opportunity to walk away from his campaign promises in order to maintain the peace, but he has decided instead to take himself both seriously and literally, and the nation will be the worse for it.