The idea that a winning GOP coalition could be constructed from Conservative Libertarians and disaffected Independents and Democrats was never very plausible. When issues involving surveillance were center stage in 2014, however, it appeared that, just perhaps, Rand Paul’s moment had finally come. Then IS started beheading people, the GOP returned to its roots as the party that kicks butt overseas, and the dream faded away.
Paul is stuck in his father’s electoral ghetto. His ceiling is around 10 percent, and my guess is that he knows it. His campaign will be about gaining converts, not winning.