An Israeli election is coming in the reasonably near future. Bibi and his wars will take center stage. How successful have they been?
Here’s the record:
- OCTOBER 7: Israel was caught unprepared, as Bibi’s government, which had supported Hamas as a counterweight to the Palestinian Authority, did not take the threat seriously. Bibi refuses to accept any blame for his mistakes, which only makes matters worse.
- GAZA WAR: Very few hostages were returned alive. Hamas has lost most of its military capabilities for the short run, but it still runs the part of Gaza that the Israelis don’t occupy, thanks largely to the government’s failure to see the war as an exercise in counterinsurgency. The entire strip is rubble. Phase II of the peace deal is a sham. The rest of the world is appalled.
- JUNE 2025 CAMPAIGN: This was both a tactical and strategic success, largely due to Israel’s willingness to stop short of a Gaza-style annihilation approach. Both Hezbollah and Iran were badly damaged, but neither surrendered.
- THE 2026 WAR: Dissatisfied with the outcome of the 2025 war, Bibi grabs for the marshmallow and gains nothing. Regime change does not happen in Iran. The best prospect for peace is an updated Obama deal–you know, the one Bibi persuaded Trump to rip up. A new and ultimately fruitless occupation of south Lebanon appears to be in the cards.
In short, the various campaigns have bought Israel some time, but have not extinguished the problems, and have cost the Israelis the permanent support of its only reliable diplomatic backer. Is that a good tradeoff? The Israeli public will have to answer that question.