Trump has just indicted Raul Castro in what is obviously an effort to create more leverage against the Cuban leadership. The Nimitz is coming to help with the oil blockade. Rubio is making propaganda videos to stir up dissent among the Cuban people. It looks like the regime change train is coming to town, even with the Iran war completely unresolved. Does Cuba look more like Iran or Venezuela?
On the Venezuela side, Cuba is geographically close to the US, lacks modern weapons, and is vulnerable to a blockade. In addition, it cannot be certain of receiving meaningful help from the outside, and it doesn’t have any obvious leverage on the US except the possibility of a massive exodus of refugees. On the Iran side, the regime is well-established and embedded throughout the country, and the government is fighting for its life. It is unlikely to sign a deal to extinguish itself just to improve the economic prospects of the population, although measures stopping short of that are on the table.
Trump appears to believe that inflicting economic misery on the population will be enough to overthrow the regime. For reasons I have outlined in previous posts, I think he is wrong. If I am right, what is Plan B? Will military action, possibly including an invasion, be on the table? TBD.