Our military attacked bases in Venezuela and apparently captured Maduro and his wife early this morning. Does that completely blow up my Venezuela prediction three days into the new year? Yes and no. Yes, in that we obviously won’t be making a deal with Maduro. No, in that most of the regime’s security apparatus will remain intact, and there has been no invasion. The use of a large number of American ground troops will be the red line for both the MAGA base and my prediction.
What happens now? If Machado can saunter back into her country and receive the peaceful surrender of the remainder of the regime, great. That seems implausible. It is far more likely that we are now in an undeclared and unprovoked war with Venezuela that has little support from the American public, and that an invasion will be necessary to bring about real regime change. Will Trump take the risk of creating his own version of Iraq, or will be make the deal I suggested in my prediction with the new head thug in Venezuela? TBD.