Trump and the Euros have finally come up with the outlines of a peace proposal that is reasonably based on facts on the ground. As of today, Putin is showing no interest in it. Why?
Because Putin wants Ukraine and the end of NATO, not peace. While the war has had some serious geopolitical down sides for him–NATO has expanded closer to his borders, he has lost influence in Central Asia, and he is more dependent on China than ever–the domestic impacts have been manageable. He thinks Trump will ultimately walk away from the war and leave Ukraine to his mercy if he is just patient enough. He may well be right.
The only way to force Putin to make peace is to persuade him that America will continue to support Ukraine, come what may. Does Trump understand that? Clearly not.