On the Dog That Didn’t Bark, 2025 Edition

Since Putin has become dependent on the Iranians as a supplier of drones for the Ukraine war, you would have expected him to react more strongly to the Israeli strikes. Instead, he mildly condemned them and offered to mediate. Somehow, I don’t think Bibi will find that offer very enticing.

What’s going on here? Putin is too stretched in Ukraine to offer meaningful assistance with troops or conventional weapons, and a threat to use nukes to protect Iran would be dismissed at this point as a bluff. The Russians, Iranians, Israelis, and Americans consequently recognize he has no leverage in this conflict.

Putin has already lost influence in Central Asia and Syria as a result of his war. Now he might be losing Iran, too, and NATO is closer to his borders. Is Ukraine worth it? I guess he thinks it is.