Not for the first time–otherwise, I would be working in Vegas or on Wall Street–one of my predictions has gone awry. The Israelis have just attacked Iran at the same time they are escalating in Gaza. I understand their perception that they have a brief window to degrade the Iranian nuclear program, but the Gaza part of the equation doesn’t make sense to me.
The Iranians will retaliate. America will intervene to protect Israel, as it did when Biden was in office. Will that defensive effort ultimately turn into a perpetual American lawn mowing campaign, as Bibi undoubtedly hopes? If I had to guess, I would say no, but that remains to be seen.