To the surprise of precisely no one, it has become clear over the last two days that Trump has no intention of using his available leverage to get better terms from Putin; instead, he plans to impose a peace on Putin’s terms on Ukraine and its European allies. The essential terms of the agreement will be as follows:
- Ukraine gives up its sovereignty over Crimea and the Donbas; the exact boundaries are TBD;
- No NATO membership for Ukraine; and
- No American security guarantees for Ukraine. Any security assistance will have to come from Europe. America will provide economic assistance, but only on an arm’s length basis.
The first two elements of this plan were inevitable based on the facts on the ground. The last is shameful. As I’ve said many times before, the presence or absence of an American security guarantee represented the difference between a Korean and a Munich peace. Trump is choosing Munich.