Due to Trump’s affinity for being unpredictable, my level of confidence in my predictions is lower than usual. Nevertheless, here goes:
- NO IRAN WAR: Trump applies maximum pressure on Iran practically from the day he takes office. The Iranians stall for time; they pretend to negotiate in good faith, while working frantically on a bomb. Bibi pushes for war, but Trump ignores him, insisting that the negotiations will ultimately succeed. The Iranian gambit succeeds; they finish work on the bomb under Trump’s nose, and the landscape in the Middle East changes.
- GAZA WINDS DOWN: Military action in Gaza diminishes, as there are few obvious targets left for the Israelis. Most of the troops go home. The rest, however, remain as an occupying force. The Israelis demand financial support for the reconstruction of Gaza from America, Europe, and the Arabs, all of whom snort derisively at the thought of indemnifying Israel from the logical consequences of its actions.
- THE UKRAINE WAR ENDS: Trump cuts off aid to Ukraine but threatens Putin with escalation if the latter doesn’t accept his terms. Putin quite understandably blows off these threats but says he is willing to talk, given the economic strains within his country. The key issue in the negotiations is the nature of the security guarantee given to what is left of Ukraine. Trump refuses to participate in any guarantees, so the Ukrainians have to settle for promises from some, but not all, of the EU countries. Nobody believes the agreement that follows will last long.
- CHINA RECOVERS: Faced with severe protectionist measures from both the US and the EU, Xi finally agrees to a massive stimulus program, which works. Domestic consumption recovers, and so does the Chinese economy.
- MACRON RESIGNS: When polls finally indicate that the majority of French voters blame the far right for the prevailing instability, Macron picks his moment and leaves office.
- AMERICAN IMPERIALISM: Trump takes military action against a country that he considers to be within America’s sphere of influence. Will it be Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico, Canada, Panama, or Greenland? TBD.