It’s obvious that the focus of politics in the UK over the next several years will be on Brexit, nationalism, and constitutional change. A major split in the Labour Party is highly likely, and the Conservatives could follow sometime thereafter.
But what of the country in 2030? Here are my predictions:
1. Scotland will leave the UK, and Northern Ireland may, as well. The domination of Scottish politics by the SNP reminds me a bit of the situation with the Home Rulers in Ireland around the turn of the 20th Century. I don’t think Scottish independence is a good idea, but it isn’t up to me. Irish reunification, on the other hand, would largely be the result of positive changes in the Republic, and would be welcome.
2. There will be a single major center-right and center-left party in 2030. The right-wing party will be the Conservatives, simply because conservatism is an idea grounded in human psychology that never really goes out of style. The left-wing party probably will bear little resemblance to the current Labour Party, which is largely an anachronism. The first-past-the-post system essentially dictates that, over the long run, minor parties will collapse into the larger ones.
3. Britain will remain close to Europe, and will be a cosmopolitan, dynamic society. It was the older people in the UK who voted Leave; they will be far less of a factor in 2030. Young people in Britain want a multi-cultural society, and they will get it.
The big remaining question is what name will be given to the remnants of the UK? One thing is for sure: it won’t be Former United Kingdom. I’m betting on Britain, without the Great.