The case for attacking Iran has never been stronger. Its proxies have murdered over 1,000 Israelis and are currently endangering freedom of navigation; it has launched missiles into Iraq and Pakistan; it is closer to getting a bomb than ever before, thanks to Trump’s decision to scrap the nuclear agreement; and it has become an ally of Russia in the Ukraine War. Does that mean it will happen?
Probably not, for two reasons. First, Biden clearly dislikes the idea of going to war in the Middle East, based on recent historical experience. Second, attacking Iran will only unite the country under its current leadership at a time when a succession crisis may bring about a dramatic regime change. Why risk it?