Imagine that Trump had succeeded in persuading the Secret Service to drive him to the Capitol on January 6. His complicity in the riot would then have been established beyond question; the immediate outcome of the day would have been more or less the same. Would it have meant the end of his political career?
Probably not. His hold on the base might even be stronger, since there would be no question of him selling them out, and the establishment has shown innumerable times that it won’t risk party unity by breaking with him no matter how outrageously he behaves. It is a license to kill–literally, if necessary.