Having argued that the expansion of NATO to Eastern Europe made his Ukraine invasion a matter of national life and death, Putin is now faced with the likelihood of Finnish and Swedish membership. A bogus cause has turned into a real effect. But from the American perspective, is expansion a good idea?
In my opinion, the following criteria should control:
- Is the applicant country democratic and stable enough to be worth protecting?
- Does it have the resources and will to carry its weight within the alliance?
- Is it likely to become a tripwire that could lead to World War III?
Sweden meets all of these standards with room to spare. Finland creates issues with #3, but both the Russian Empire and the USSR had limited strategic objectives there, so the likelihood of a Russian invasion would be relatively low. The Ukrainian request for membership, however, comes with few advantages and immense risk to the alliance. The Ukrainians certainly aspire to a liberal democracy, and have shown the willingness to do whatever it takes to maintain their sovereignty against great odds, but does Ukraine meet the first and third standards? I would say not.