Assume, for purposes of argument, that the war ends with some sort of negotiated agreement which trades a limited amount of Ukrainian territory and a pledge of military neutrality for guarantees of sovereignty. Large areas of Ukraine have been devastated. What happens now?
The US and the EU–not Russia, of course–provide huge sums of money for reconstruction. Ukraine consequently moves even further into the EU camp. The aftermath of the war is consequently another political disaster for Russian imperialists who had hoped (and not without reason) that Ukraine would ultimately fall into their lap through the use of carefully calibrated pressure tactics short of war. Putin’s lack of patience has cost them dearly.
A NOTE TO MY READERS: I will be out of town for a few days, starting tomorrow. Regular posting will resume on Sunday.