By 2030, Europe had changed beyond recognition. NATO and the EU had disappeared, and Putin was the most powerful figure on the continent. How did it happen?
It started with the Trump victory in 2024. No longer subject to any kind of restraints, he immediately pulled the US out of NATO. With America out of the picture, Putin then attacked the Baltic states. The rump of NATO saw that it was outgunned, believed it had no vital interests in the Baltics, and refused to intervene. The former Warsaw Pact countries got the message, and NATO came to an end.
In the meantime, Putin’s allies won the elections in France and Italy. Along with his illiberal friends in Poland and Hungary, they paralyzed the EU to the point that it could no longer function. It collapsed, as well.
The Germans had a choice–rebuild their army and invest in nuclear weapons, or reach a deal with Putin. Lacking the will to spend the money necessary to create a proper deterrent, they made the deal. Putin promised to put them under his nuclear umbrella and intercede on their behalf with the Chinese in exchange for neutrality and some measure of economic aid. It was an offer they could accept.
Europe today is a highly protectionist continent, run in the interests of Russia against the United States. The American “new right” sees this as cause for celebration. “America First” means an American sphere of influence in the New World, and no commitments anywhere else. Trump’s government is now free to do what it really wants to do–make life as miserable as possible for immigrants, seculars, left-leaning women, the LGBTQ community, and racial minorities at home.
UPDATE: The Ukraine invasion isn’t helping him accomplish any of this. It’s completely counterproductive.