Putin probably thought this would be easy. A small blast of shock and awe, and the Ukrainians would give up. After all, they’re Russia’s little brothers, aren’t they? NATO would respond with its usual fecklessness and division. It would be all over in a few days.
He should have known better. Russia is now faced with Hungary in 1956, except that the Ukrainians have an army and more effective help from NATO. There will be heavy fighting in the streets, and thousands of casualties. Putin is at war with an entire nation, even if he doesn’t recognize Ukraine as one. What does he do now?
He will double down. At home, he will dive into his reserves to mitigate the impacts of the sanctions, while cutting off the internet and arresting the usual suspects. Unfortunately for him, the impacts of the sanctions will be felt immediately, while the mitigation will take time. In Ukraine, he will be forced by his military leaders to escalate in order to protect his troops. There will be massive destruction of residential areas in the cities. The optics will be terrible, and his friends in Europe will be running for cover.
It will be a public relations disaster for his Chinese enablers, too. This is the logical end of wolf warrior diplomacy.