Our local newspaper ran an article yesterday about the results of the Florida primary that focused on the residents of a mobile home park. According to the article, the residents were angry that the out-of-state owner had let the park run down, so they voted in large numbers for Trump, who presumably promised to make their park great again.
You can snicker at this if you want to (I certainly did), but I think there is a larger truth in this fairly ridiculous story that needs to be recognized.
In all likelihood, the park residents were Democrats until the 1960’s and 1970’s, at which time the party started to evolve from a more class-based organization into a coalition of victims. They loved Reagan, who exuded strength, talked trash to the rest of the world, and identified with their values. They ultimately became Republicans, but despised George W. Bush for his recession and his unsuccessful and unnecessary war. They hate Obama for being too “urban” and for, in their eyes, showing contempt for them and their values. In short, they are just generally angry about the state of the country (including their park), and they don’t really identify with either party, because they don’t want either big government that sides with people they perceive to be their enemies, or limited government that works primarily for rich people; they want swaggering government that understands their frustrations, protects their interests, and kicks butt abroad.
Hence the popularity of Trump. I mention Le Pen in the title of this post because you are going to see the same phenomenon in France in 2017. Le Pen is going to tell the electorate that Sarkozy led them into a recession, and is a tool of the Germans, while Hollande has done nothing to improve the situation, and so the only way out is to vote against the two failed establishment parties and for her. I will be very surprised if she doesn’t win the most votes in the first round, and her chances of winning will be similar to Trump’s.