Stephen Miller’s theory of the case is that the base viewed the Iran war as a betrayal of “America First.” All Trump has to do is end the war and reduce gas prices; at that point, the base will return, and Trump will wield as much clout as before. Does that make sense?
No, for multiple reasons. First of all, based on history and the polls, the Democrats were likely to win the midterms even without the war. The war turned an incipient blue wave into a tsunami. Second, Trump can’t end the war rapidly without being labeled as a loser. Finally, the support of the base is not enough to win elections. Trump won in 2024 because swing voters–not the base–thought he would bring back the economy of 2019. They ignored his record, his capricious personality, and his program, which was practically designed to create more inflation. They are paying the price for it today.