Based on his behavior on January 6, Josh Hawley has impeccable MAGA credentials. He has strong ties to the religious right. Unlike J.D., he cannot logically be held responsible for the foreign policy failures of Trump 2.0. Finally, he presents himself as a genuine economic populist, not a faux one, like most of the Trumpsters. As a result, there is a lane available to him if he decides to take on J.D. in 2028. Will he do it?
While 2028 is probably the last realistic opportunity for Ted Cruz, and Ron DeSantis will become increasingly irrelevant after he leaves office at the end of this year, Hawley has plenty of time to wait on events. The possibility that he will run cannot be dismissed, particularly if the polls indicate the GOP needs to move in a very different direction, but I think it is more likely than not that Hawley will sit this one out and run in 2032 or 2036.