Month: March 2026

No one outside of Iran—and not many there—is going to miss Ayatollah Khamenei. Nevertheless, the war is controversial for the following reasons:

1. Neither historical precedents nor common sense suggest that a meaningful regime change is possible without a ground assault and an occupation.

2. If, somehow, meaningful regime change does occur, there is no guarantee that it will improve conditions for the Iranian people or the rest of the world.

3. Since there was no imminent danger from Iran, and the cost of the war is likely to be significant, the Constitution demands that it be authorized by Congress. The war is just another power grab by an authoritarian who wants to show the world that he is the boss.

And the case for the war? For that, see my next post.

The Supreme Leader got the rousing sendoff he so desperately wanted yesterday. To live to his late eighties and to be a martyr! It doesn’t get any better than that.

Khamenei was an obstacle to a peaceful and prosperous Iran for decades. He oppressed his people, not out of spite or personal ambition, but because he thought it was God’s will. Now that he is out of the way, can we expect improvement?

Probably not. My hope was that he would die quietly in his bed as soon as possible, and that an open succession crisis splitting the elite would ensue. That is unlikely under the current conditions. The elite will probably rally around a hardliner, and nothing will change.