The unknowns are pretty well known for this year. Here are my predictions:
- VENEZUELA: We know for certain that Trump will continue to ratchet up the pressure on Maduro. The uncertainties are whether it will work, and if it doesn’t, whether Trump will launch an invasion over the objections of a majority of Americans. My best guesses are no and no; Trump makes a face-saving deal with Maduro over oil, drugs, and immigration and backs down.
- CHINA: Trump clearly wants to make a sphere of influence deal with Xi which includes trade concessions on the part of the Chinese. Will it happen in 2026? I don’t think the Chinese are ready for it yet. I suspect it will happen in 2027.
- MIDDLE EAST: Will there be another war with Iran, and will Trump join in this time? Yes, Bibi will launch more airstrikes, and no, Trump won’t join in. In the meantime, Phase 2 in Gaza goes nowhere fast, and while there is plenty of anger within Iran, there is no revolution–yet.
- UKRAINE: The slog will continue until Trump either forces the Ukrainians to give in by siding openly and permanently with Russia or makes Putin moderate his demands by supplying more and better weapons. I predict that he will do neither and that the current trajectory of the war will consequently remain unchanged in 2026.
- EUROPE: It is safe to assume that Trump will keep insulting the EU, which will do nothing meaningful in response.