J.D. Vance and Ron DeSantis have a lot in common. Both are conservative Catholics; both served in the military; both have law degrees from Ivy League schools; both hate intellectual elites and wokeness with a passion; neither has what you would call a winning personality, although DeSantis is worse; and both are desperate to be elected president. That means the almost certain conflict between the two in the 2028 GOP primaries will be fascinating.
DeSantis starts with one substantial advantage; he is not bound by the entirety of the Trump legacy, so he can pick and choose which parts he agrees with, depending on the mood of the country. This could be particularly helpful with inflation and free trade. But Vance holds two aces; he will have more initial support from the base, and Trump will keep open his option to run for a third term as long as possible, thereby making it difficult for an outsider to put together a campaign until the last minute. Would DeSantis have the nerve to challenge Trump a second time after offending the base in 2023 and 2024? I doubt it.
Vance, therefore, will begin the campaign with the edge. Whether he can keep it will depend on his performance and the perceived state of the economy. If the country has turned against Trump, most notably on tariffs, DeSantis will have a fighting chance.