The center and the left far outperformed expectations in the second round of the French election yesterday. You might think I’m celebrating today, but I’m not. Why?
For two reasons. First, even though the culture war hostility between the right and the left is very deep, hence the outcome of the election, the extremes actually have more in common on issues such as taxation, spending, and the EU than they do with the center. How is France to be governed for the next year under those conditions, particularly since Macron is in no position to negotiate with the right? Second, the right will not have any responsibility for the success or failure of the government, and it will have a plausible argument that it was deprived of power by a corrupt deal between the center and the left. That will put it in an even better position to win the presidency in 2027, without any constraints on its use of power.
Pay me now or pay me later. Short-term gain for long-term pain. Enjoy it while it lasts.