For two decades now, the Israelis have refused to take risks for peace, because, well, it was so darn risky. You couldn’t trust your Palestinian partner, and even if you could, there would be serious political violence at home. There would be assassinations–maybe even civil war. Better to rely on conflict management–try to avoid provocations, quietly change the facts on the ground, and cut the grass when necessary.
Call it the Netanyahu consensus. It seemed to work. The Israeli left withered and mostly disappeared. The far right did better, but it never ran the show. Until now.
As I have predicted many times, the Palestinians have a vote. The Netanyahu consensus has been blown to smithereens. As a result, when the war is over, there will be a lot more space for wildly different opinions–either a sincere search for a two-state solution or ethnic cleansing. There will be an open window for a more imaginative approach to the Palestinian issue.
But if and when it fails, the Israelis will go back to conflict management, because, you know, taking risks for peace is so darn risky.