These will be the biggest stories of 2023:
- RUSSIA/UKRAINE: Both Putin and NATO will escalate slowly and in a reciprocal way, without moving the needle much. By the end of the year, there is some momentum for a reasonable diplomatic settlement, as a total military victory for either side seems less and less plausible.
- TURKEY: With an election coming soon and the economy in trouble, Erdogan stirs the nationalist pot in order to divert the attention of his voters. A war with Greece looks imminent for a time, but the usefulness of the crisis ends, so Erdogan slowly pulls back from the brink.
- CHINA: See “Turkey” above, with Taiwan replacing Greece and without the election part.
- IRAN: Given that Iran is now effectively an ally of Russia, a war to stop the export of weapons, eliminate the nuclear threat, and weaken the power of the regime to control dissent would make some sense on its face. Biden really doesn’t want another Middle East war, however, so it doesn’t happen.
- NORTH KOREA: With all possible diplomatic solutions exhausted, and an aggressive war unthinkable, the US and the rest of the world quietly faces facts and learns to live with Kim’s nukes.