Due to the fecklessness of the Palestinian leaders, the regional danger presented by Iran, and the failures of the Arab Spring, the Israelis have felt themselves invulnerable over the last few years. However, as I have pointed out several times, this is based on conditions that will not last forever. The refusal to take risks for peace, while perfectly understandable in the short run, will cost Israel dearly in the long run.
What are Israel’s vulnerabilities? Here is the list:
- While the military threat presented by Hamas in Gaza is a flea bite, Hezbollah is a much more dangerous enemy. Contrary to my predictions, the IDF has avoided doing much about it over the last 15 years. At some point, the battle will have to be fought.
- The autocratic Arab regimes around Israel are ineffective and unstable. A revolution in Egypt or Jordan would have dramatic consequences for the Jewish state. Don’t completely discount the Arab street; the Palestinian cause may not be at the top of its list of grievances, but it still matters particularly if the Israeli government takes provocative actions over the Muslim holy places.
- The American left, due largely to Bibi’s complete identification with Trump and the GOP, is far less supportive of Israel than it used to be.
- Years of discrimination against Israel’s Arab citizens may turn them into a mortal threat. Unlike the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, they cannot be ignored if they turn firmly against the government.
#4 may be coming home to roost as I’m writing this. We’ll see.