Ross Douthat examines the thesis that Trump made progressives out of appalled centrists and finds it incomplete. Is he right?
Yes. To cite four examples:
- On immigration, Trump’s first signature issue, there is no doubt that he galvanized moderate public opinion against him. He can therefore take “credit” for a significant shift in sentiment in favor of refugees.
- For racial equity issues, on the other hand, the turning point came with the GOP’s appalling response to the election of Barack Obama. BLM had its origins in the Obama era. Trump threw salt in the wound, but he didn’t create it.
- Realistically speaking, the development of the concepts of cancel culture and wokeness had little to do with Trump. These are ideas that are tied to millennials, left-wing intellectuals, and the internet, not Trump.
- Millennial concerns about climate change and student debt similarly predate Trump. He just intensified them.
The bottom line is that the center has moved left partly due to circumstances beyond the control of any one individual (legitimate concerns about inequality and the adequacy of the welfare state; the pandemic; the availability of more or less free money) and partly due to the threat Trump and his party present to the workings of American liberal democracy. Centrists aren’t going to worry about the woke left as long as the Trump right appears to support the Orban Option.