Assume that the Biden boom is still in full swing in 2024. Do the Republicans respond by nominating someone (e.g., Josh Hawley) with a similar populist agenda and fight the election purely on culture and identity issues?
I doubt it. The GOP would effectively be conceding that regressive tax cuts and deregulation aren’t always the answer, and that not every election is a rerun of 1980. The rank and file might already accept that, but the intellectual and institutional leadership does not, and probably never will.
Inertia is a powerful thing. My guess is that it will take at least two election cycles to put an end to the enduring image of Reagan and morning in America within the GOP.