Imagine that you are Xi Jinping, and you are considering your options with regard to Taiwan. The effective independence of the island feels like a stick in the eye to you–or, perhaps, an amputated limb. You know that your legacy in Chinese history will be assured if you can somehow bring Taiwan back under your control. What’s more, you think you have both the will and the ability to do it.
But still. China has prospered for all of these years without driving America into war. You think America will back down, but you can’t be sure. America’s military is experienced, and not to be trifled with. And everything is going well in your world without taking any such enormous risks. Is now really the time to strike?
Probably not. Maybe if it looks like America’s relations with the Quad start looking more dangerous, and you need to launch a preemptive attack somewhere. But for now, you think you’re winning, so the rewards don’t justify the risks. The day is coming, but it isn’t here quite yet.
A note to my readers: I will be on vacation next week. Any posting will be irregular at best.