The World After Trump: Cuba

Frankly, Donald Trump didn’t give a damn about Cuba. His objectives there were: (1) to retain the votes of Cuban-Americans; (2) to keep Marco Rubio happy and on his team; and (3) to obliterate Obama’s legacy to the maximum extent possible.

Based on those criteria, his policy was a success. However, it can easily be overturned. Expect Biden to do so relatively quickly.

On the Stab in the Back

The PBP faction of the Republican Party understands perfectly that Trump has lost the election. In the interests of maintaining party unity as long as possible, its members have said as little as possible about Trump’s increasingly bizarre fraud theories. The moment of reckoning, however, gets closer with every passing day.

No later than the day the Electoral College votes, and probably sooner than that, the PBPs will have to acknowledge reality and start working with the president-elect. At that point, the portion of the Reactionary faction that is still loyal to Trump (i.e., most of it) will scream that it has been stabbed in the back by RINOs and will call for revenge. What happens after that will have a significant impact on the direction of the GOP as it goes into the 2022 and 2024 elections.

Trump has made a living dividing the country. It only seems fitting that one of the last acts of his presidency will be to split his own party.

The World After Trump: Canada

Justin Trudeau must think he died and went to heaven. He no longer has to deal with Donald Trump! Relations with the United States can return to normal again.

Well, with the pandemic in place, not exactly normal. Nevertheless, this is one place where it is relatively easy to put the genie back in its bottle. The stupid steel tariffs will be eliminated, the occasionally angry rhetoric will cease, and our relationship will be friendly and productive again.

We have an important competitive advantage relative to China in the quality of our neighbors. Trump was so enamored of his “America First” approach to the world that he was unable to see that. Biden is not so foolish.

The End of the S6

(Donald Trump is wandering around the White House desperately trying to figure out a way to pull a rabbit out of a hat. He suddenly thinks that his strongman buddies can do something to keep him in power. Inevitably, he starts by calling Putin).

T: Vlad the Impaler! I need your help again, bro!

P: I’m not your bro, Donald. I’m very disappointed in you. I told you a thousand times you needed to be a proper strongman and take charge. You never did. Now, look at you. You’re a loser!

T: But it doesn’t have to be that way! I’m still alive, and fighting! We can still pull this thing out–you and me, like old times!

P: It’s over, Donald. You failed me. You just didn’t have what it took to be a real strongman. I’ve moved on–you should, too. Goodbye.

(Shaken, Trump calls Duterte).

T: Rodrigo, you son of a bitch!

D: Trump, you son of a whore! What can I do for you?

T: I need some help to stay in power.

D: It’s too late for that. Do you remember your line about shooting people in broad daylight on Fifth Avenue?

T: Of course.

D: You should have done it. That’s what I would have done. People would have respected and feared you. Now, they don’t take you seriously. There’s nothing I can do to help. Goodbye.

(Next, Trump tries Xi)

T: Xi-man! I need your help. I’ll trade you Hong Kong and Taiwan for help in staying in power.

X: You don’t have anything to trade. Why would we help you, anyway? You did nothing but complain about us.

T: That was just business. You know I never said anything bad about you.

X: You lost. Anyway, we don’t interfere in America’s internal affairs. We have nothing to discuss. Goodbye.

(Trump tries calling Kim, but Kim won’t even pick up the phone. Erdogan is his last hope).

T: How’s my favorite Muslim?

E: I’m expanding my powers every day. Unlike you.

T: I need some help here. Can’t you do anything for me?

E: For old time’s sake, I’m willing to give you and your family asylum in Istanbul. You’ll be safe from your creditors and the law here. But Ivanka and Melania will have to wear Muslim dress.

T: Thanks for the offer. I’ll think about it.

(His foreign options exhausted, he goes off to discuss Erdogan’s offer with Melania and Ivanka).

On Trump and the Case for Monarchy, Updated

“The Crown” is about the severe restrictions the system puts on the life choices of all of the members of the royal family, and how they react to them. Everyone inevitably rebels in one way or another, but those who persist, or go over the line, are crushed. The viewer can’t help but think that it is a bad bargain for all of them. It is a case, in a backhanded way, for a republic.

But Trump has shown that there are problems with republics, too. While he has been a failure as our country’s chief executive, he has been an unmitigated disaster as our head of state. As our national representative to the world, he sends the message that Americans are stupid, crass, and narcissistic. He embarrasses us every day he sits in the White House.

For all of their shortcomings, no member of the royal family has ever shamed the residents of the UK the way Trump has humiliated us. Monarchy, anyone?

The World After Trump: Afghanistan

As I’ve noted before, there are two models for American policy towards Afghanistan. In the Korean model, we identify Afghanistan as being uniquely important and dangerous as a result of its history, topography, and location, and commit to keeping troops there indefinitely. The Vietnam model, of course, directs us to get our troops out regardless of the consequences.

Trump clearly prefers the Vietnam model. He’s been trying to withdraw completely for most of his term, but has been frustrated by the military leadership and his own fear that the Taliban would parade into Kabul on his watch, which would make him a loser. It is very possible that his latest flurry of firings in the Pentagon was designed to assist him in the process of forcing a withdrawal. Biden basically agrees that, in today’s world, there is no justification for treating Afghanistan differently than a host of other countries that, deliberately or not, provide safe havens for terrorists throughout the world, but it is less likely that he would withdraw completely. His goal appears to be to maintain a small counterterrorism force there and to leave the country to its own devices in most other respects.

In short, the differences between the two on Afghanistan are a matter of degree, not kind.

On Presidential Losers

It would be fair to say that Trump lost to Obama, the president whose legacy he has tried so hard to obliterate. In addition, he put himself in a category with George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter by failing to win a second term.

JIMMY CARTER! God, he would hate that. He should be reminded of it at every turn.

On the Dress Rehearsal (2)

Trump’s most recent public activities are not clearly inconsistent with the notion that he intends to use extraconstitutional means to remain in power even after losing the election. Given that he is spending most of his time playing golf, watching TV, and tweeting, however, it appears far more likely that he is throwing a tantrum without any deeper political meaning. If that is the case, the situation will ultimately resolve itself without any drastic action from the Biden camp.

That said, it would be a mistake to minimize the importance of what is happening now, and what has happened over the last four years. Trump has shown the world that he can trample on constitutional norms without any consequences, given the unconditional support of Republicans in Congress and the trusty base. He is currently doing everything he can to erode trust in our electoral system, which is a cornerstone of liberal democracy. That will be a lesson to any future Franco wannabe who is currently watching and waiting for his turn.

In short, this farce is just the dress rehearsal. The real battle with the forces of illiberalism has yet to be fought, much less won.

Profile of a PBP

My name is Mark. I grew up in a small town in Indiana, close to the Illinois line. My dad was the local car dealer. He worked hard, and he built the dealership from next to nothing, but he was always there for us. We were comfortable, but never felt rich. We were just average people in an average town.

After I graduated from IU with a degree in business, I went back and worked for my dad. I did every job in the dealership, and learned everything there was to know about selling cars. When he retired, he turned the dealership over to me. I’ve been there ever since.

People don’t understand how difficult it is to sell cars, particularly in this environment. What, with the internet, and environmental issues, and a never ending list of regulations, you never know where you are from day to day. I work my butt off, and I earn everything I get. It pisses me off when people on the left call me “privileged;” they don’t understand how much my dad and I sacrificed to get where I am today.

Trump? He can be awfully embarrassing. Half the time, he has no idea what he’s talking about. Sometimes he just makes me cringe. My wife absolutely can’t stand him. But, after some struggle, I decided to vote for him, because he was good for my business and my investments, even with his stupid tariffs and big mouth. Voting for Biden was just too big a risk. He’s OK on his own, but what about Bernie and Warren and the rest of that crowd? They just can’t be trusted.

The outcome of the election was OK. We can rely on Mitch to keep the Democrats in line, and Biden seems like a reasonable, decent guy. I don’t like all of this stuff about overturning the results of the election. Instability is not our friend. It’s time to move on.

On Biden, the MSM, and Trump’s Tweets

Although they may despise each other, Trump and the MSM are locked in a corrupt, destructive relationship. The MSM give Trump the attention he needs like oxygen, while Trump makes them money. Lots of money. And he knows it.

So what happens after he leaves office? Do the MSM continue to report on Trump’s tweets? And how does Biden respond, if they do?

I predict that Biden will establish a policy of refusing to comment on the tweets, regardless of how provocative they are, early on in his administration. The MSM will continue to report on them for a few months, but will ultimately lose interest when they don’t receive the desired response, and the outrage machine will shudder to a welcome halt.

On Mitch and the Majority

It is generally assumed that McConnell will be every bit the obstructionist that he was in 2009 if the GOP wins one or both of the special elections in Georgia. Is that inevitable?

Not exactly, because the situations are somewhat different. In 2009, McConnell and the GOP had the luxury of irresponsibility, because the Democrats had an enormous majority in both houses. That will not be the case in 2021. Mitch will have to cooperate with the new administration and House Democrats to keep the lights on. He will also get some of the blame if things go wrong. Finally, two or three of his members are not completely reliable. He will consequently have to choose his battles with some care.

There is no likelihood of any significant expansion of the welfare state in the next two years if Mitch remains Majority Leader, as is likely, but don’t assume that it will be impossible to get anything at all done on issues like infrastructure. The picture is a little brighter than that.

Where the Left is Right

Given the magnitude of the stakes involved, the state of public opinion, and the absurdity of the GOP’s position, climate change should have been a layup for the Democrats during the campaign. Instead, Biden went into a defensive crouch every time the issue came up during the debates. Most of the discussion was about how we’re not banning fracking and adopting the GND rather than about rising sea level, hurricanes, and wildfires. In fact, Biden’s comment about a transition away from fossil fuels was treated as a gaffe rather than the bland statement of common sense that it actually was.

In Biden’s case, you can sort of excuse this by reference to his correct belief that the election could come down to a handful of frackers in Pennsylvania. Candidates in down ballot races, however, have no similar excuse.

In this case, the left is right: the Democrats need to be far bolder and more emphatic in their presentation. If the planet is truly in danger–and it is–it isn’t enough to say so and then talk about all of the things you’re not doing to save it; you need to lay out a clear plan to actually do something, and fast.

Left Behind

There were two unequivocal losers of the 2020 election. One, of course, was Donald Trump; the other was the left wing of the Democratic Party, which was looking forward to a major expansion of the welfare state in 2021. Barring a surprise win by the Democrats in both Georgia special elections, that will not happen. So where does the left go from here?

You can be certain that they will put a huge emphasis on dictating regulatory personnel. The problem there is that the GOP Senate will have veto power over Biden’s appointments, and the Democrats can’t afford to give away any vulnerable Senate seats. Don’t expect the left to be satisfied with whatever remains.

The real danger is that the left, as usual, will view the moderate wing of the Democratic Party as the enemy instead of the GOP, and will take its frustrations to the street. If that happens, the GOP, which campaigned far more against rioters, looters, and political correctness than Biden, will be the ultimate winner.

Thoughts on Veterans Day

Today, we recognize the contributions of those who set aside their daily lives to serve their country. What kind of country were they trying to protect? Was it a beacon of freedom and opportunity for people of all races, cultures, and creeds? Or was it a country run by and for straight white Christian men, with everyone else being an interloper and a potential threat to good order? In other words, who are the “people” in “We, the people?”

The ultimate answer to that question is up to us, not them.

Sebastian Speaks on the Election

It was rigged, and I can prove it. All you have to do is drive through my little town. Every other house has a Trump sign or flag. You won’t see any Biden/Harris signs. Not one! How can they possibly have won legally?

I know–you’re going to say that the Democrats won in the cities and suburbs. But those aren’t real Americans. They’re all rioting and looting and killing each other. They have no respect for our history, culture, and institutions. They’re animals, I tell you–animals!

Trump? I know he’s not perfect. I know he didn’t grow up in Alabama. I know he doesn’t love NASCAR, country music, guns, and Jesus. He may not even love people like me who love NASCAR, country music, guns, and Jesus. But I know one thing for sure: he really hates people who hate NASCAR, country music, guns, and Jesus. That’s good enough for me.

Biden? I don’t have anything against him. He and his family have been through a lot. But he’s too old and feeble to keep the left-wing animals in his party under control. Fortunately, we still have Mitch to do that for us.

All I can say is, he better not try and come for my guns. If he does, I’m not responsible for what happens next.