There is every reason to believe that Ford is telling the truth, but to me, that isn’t decisive. I still think the statute of limitations has long since run on anything Kavanaugh did in high school.
Kavanaugh lost me for two reasons. First, he lied repeatedly during his testimony, even on minor items like the meaning of “boofed.” Second, by giving an interview to Fox News and lashing out at Democrats, he established that he is nothing but a right-wing partisan with little interest in persuading anyone to the contrary. As a result, confirming him will damage public confidence in the judicial system, which needs to be avoided at all costs.
If the FBI is able to do its job properly, my best guess is that they will find that the episode could have happened as Ford described it, notwithstanding Kavanaugh’s denials, but that they cannot prove that it did happen, due to the passage of time and the effects of alcohol. Party line politics will take over from that point forward, and the country will be much the worse for it.