Month: August 2018

Divisive people are disgusting!  Build the wall to keep them out!

In general, you can divide the PBPs into three groups:  big “globalist” businessmen who appreciate Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation, but worry about his tariffs, reactionary social policies, and random interventions; owners of smaller businesses with only domestic clientele who love the man to death; and their wives, who have to balance their economic self-interest against Trump’s deplorable behavior.

There are plenty of votes to be won here, particularly among the women, if you’re willing to forego “socialism.”  Is that tradeoff worth it?  In 2018, it depends on the makeup of each individual district.  The issue will be much more acute in 2020.

In the blue corner, we have “The Sultan!”  A genuine Islamic authoritarian, he’s an economic ignoramus who believes that higher interest rates cause inflation.  Having tried with limited success to play the Russians off against his erstwhile American and European allies, he’s currently holding Americans essentially as hostages in an effort to force the US government to deport one of his political enemies.  He’s a piece of work, to be sure.

In the red corner, we have “The Dotard!”  An inept, corrupt wannabe strongman, he thinks the answer to every foreign policy problem is a war or a tariff.  He thinks he can make America great again by alienating every other government on the planet outside of Israel and Saudi Arabia.  He wants to bring “The Sultan” to his knees, just because, well, he thinks he can.  Swagger is his stock in trade.

LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE!

And the winners are . . . my UK vacation, which is getting cheaper by the day, and Vladimir Putin, as usual.  Everyone else loses.

It’s a wonderful world.

It would appear that MBS graduated from the Donald J. Trump School of Thin-Skinned, Swaggering Diplomacy (not to be confused with Trump University).  Having unsuccessfully attempted to change the government of Lebanon, blockaded Qatar, and launched an endless and bloody war in Yemen, the Saudis have now started a row with Canada over some fairly inoffensive statements about human rights violations.    What, exactly, is this supposed to accomplish?

(On two related notes, the US government is not taking sides in this dispute, and it turns out that the Saudis don’t just behead people–they crucify them, too!  Bet that goes over well with Trump’s religious fundamentalist base.)

It’s one thing to swagger when you have the world’s biggest economy and most effective military on your side.  It’s quite another to do it when the world is trying to phase out the use of your country’s only real economic asset.  My guess is that Canada doesn’t even buy any Saudi oil.  Why, under those circumstances, would they capitulate to Saudi pressure?

MBS would be wise to take a hard look at his country’s real assets and liabilities, and to conduct his diplomacy accordingly.

The Koch brothers, who basically embody the CL faction, have indicated that they welcome the opportunity to work with Democrats on issues like criminal justice reform.  Is this an opening for 2020?

Not really.  While the CLs and the Democrats share an interest in clean and effective government, the former want to decrease the size of the state for virtually all purposes, and the latter want to expand it.  In addition, there are relatively few CLs to chase.

The Democrats may get a few votes from CLs who can’t stand Trump’s corruption, incompetence, and tariffs, but not enough to make a difference.  It simply isn’t worth the effort.

The internet is ablaze about Sarah Jeong, a young Asian woman recently hired by the NYT.  It appears that Ms. Jeong has a habit of making extremely derogatory remarks about white people on Twitter, often in response to attacks from right-wing trolls.  Some commentators have responded to this by insisting that racial hate speech by minorities should be held to the same standard as similar speech by white right-wingers.  Her defenders have argued, in essence, that her comments were taken out of their ironic context, and that they should be taken seriously, but not literally.

But, you ask, what about Donald Trump?  He uses Twitter to make extreme comments that are meant to firm up his bonds with his base.  If Ms. Jeong’s facially racist statements should be excused on the basis that she was just chatting ironically with her friends, shouldn’t Trump be treated the same way?

No, because: (a) Trump has responsibilities to the entire nation as president that Ms. Jeong doesn’t; and (b) he isn’t just communicating ironically with his friends–he’s also trying to trigger the libs for his own advantage.

If the Democrats are going to win in 2020, they are going to have to peel away millions of Trump voters within the GOP.  How will they do that?  I will be discussing that in terms of the four factions over the coming days, starting with the Christian Democrats.

Essentially everything about Trump and his government–the lies, corruption, incompetence, divisiveness, arrogance, and indifference (even hostility) to the condition of the poor and powerless–is an affront to the CDs.  In exchange for that, here is an exhaustive list of what Trump has done to accommodate them:

Gorsuch.

That’s it.  Getting the CDs to vote for the Democrat in 2020 should be like shooting fish in a barrel.  All you have to do is avoid sounding too overly hostile to Christian values, and try not to talk too much about abortion.  That shouldn’t be too hard.

I read the New Yorker article about the culture at CBS last week.  The allegations against Leslie Moonves were appalling and well-corroborated.  The allegations against the people at 60 Minutes were less serious and less persuasive.

One of my issues with #MeToo is that it relies primarily on public shaming as a remedy, and does not draw clear distinctions between, say, Bill Cosby and some director who slapped the butt of an actress 15 years ago.  Public shaming is a blunt instrument that simply isn’t appropriate in many cases.  In situations involving clearly criminal conduct that, as a practical matter, can be prosecuted, it isn’t enough–the perpetrator belongs in jail.  In situations involving verbal harassment and minor physical contact, the most suitable remedy is a private apology and, if necessary, civil litigation.  Public shaming should only be used for conduct that falls between these two poles.

Based on this analysis, the treatment of Moonves in the article was unobjectionable, and if he loses his job, so be it.  I’m less convinced that the 60 Minutes people were treated fairly.

Pay no attention to Trump’s tweets, his lawyers say.  They’re only “opinions,” not “orders.”  They have no legal significance.

It sounds a bit like the famous scene from the Wizard of Oz.  For some reason, the public insists on paying attention to the man behind the screen in spite of directions to the contrary.

It appears that the GOP has a new hate figure:  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.  She thus joins the pantheon of much-loathed, uppity women, which also includes Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi.

Will it work?  Fox News will try, but I doubt it.  AOC is hardly as well-known as the other two, and, given her background, she can’t plausibly be accused of being an out-of-touch, wealthy, limousine liberal.  My guess is that attacking her will only further alienate younger people, which will hurt the GOP in the long run.

“Abolish ICE” is the current rallying cry of the left.  It appears to be based on the following syllogism:

1.  Trump is a racist;
2.  His immigration policies are racist; therefore
3.  Abolishing ICE is a good way to fight racism.

While abolishing ICE may be good poetry, however, it is bad prose–just as bad as building the wall.  Sound immigration policy is built on the following principles:

1.  Refugees are protected by international law.  They are entitled to decent treatment, fair hearings, and a liberal understanding of what “persecution” means.  However, people who do not meet the standard have no right to be here, and may be deported.
2.  Given our demographic issues, it makes no sense to reduce legal immigration.  If anything, it should be increased.  We have the right, however, to admit only those people who can make a real contribution to our country.  There is nothing inherently wrong in having “merit-based” immigration;  the real issue is identifying what “merit” means.
3.  There is a theoretical case for deporting illegal immigrants who are here purely for economic reasons.  In the real world, mass deportations are unrealistic and would do far more harm than good.  Illegal immigrants who have been here for a long time (the Dreamers in particular) should be given a path to citizenship.
4. Illegal immigrants who commit serious crimes should be deported.

“Abolishing ICE” won’t even have the support of the Sanders wing of the Democratic Party.  Bernie himself has made it clear that he views open borders as a Koch brothers plot to reduce wages.  If the Democratic Party makes this its position in 2020, it is looking for trouble, and will undoubtedly find it.

A real conservative, as I’ve stated many times, is suspicious of change.  When he is forced to deal with it, he assumes the worst, and plans accordingly.  He does his best to make sure that any mistake he might make won’t damage the interests of future generations.

The GOP’s reaction to climate change is precisely the opposite.  Instead of taking small measures now to address a potential future worst case scenario, the GOP believes in living for today, and simply hoping that everything will work out in the long run.

That is their attitude on tax cuts and the deficit, too.  And that is why the GOP cannot be called a “conservative” party under any meaningful definition of the word.

 

The physics of climate change have been understood for a very long time.  The temperature data are unequivocal.   The policy implications are fairly clear and are being felt even today.  The only remaining questions are the precise amount of the temperature increase in the future and the extent to which human activity is responsible.

Climate change imposes costs, whether central government chooses to acknowledge that or not.  They will be borne;  the real issue is, by whom?  From an economist’s perspective, the correct answer would be by the people who cause climate change, and benefit from it.

The following questions are pertinent:

1.  Who benefits from climate change?  The most obvious winners are the owners and workers of fossil fuel industries.  The fact is, however, that everyone who drives a car or uses electricity also benefits substantially.

2.  Who are the parties who will be most affected by climate change?  Residents of areas abutting the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, due to increased hurricane activity;  farmers; residents of the southwestern states, which may become uninhabitable; and residents of western states with major fire issues.

3.  Who currently bears the burdens of climate change?  Taxpayers throughout the country pay for most FEMA operations.  Individual coastal property owners pay for flood insurance, although the taxpayer picks up some of the tab.  Individual property owners also pay for retrofits, sometimes with the help of insurance.  Local governments pay to retrofit threatened infrastructure.

With these facts in mind, it is clear that, if nothing changes, individuals living in the specified areas and local governments will wind up bearing most of the costs, although FEMA operations will become more and more expensive over time.  GOP dogma notwithstanding, therefore, federal taxpayers will be increasingly burdened with these costs whether they are fully aware of it or not.

If the objective is to allocate costs roughly in proportion to benefits, as it should be, the federal contribution should be larger and more transparent.  The obvious way to spread the costs would be through a federal carbon tax.

If you ask Bernie Sanders how he can get his ambitious legislative program through a Congress which is currently controlled by the GOP, and which is institutionally inclined to inertia regardless of who is in power, his answer is “the revolution.”  What he means by that is that the program will have so much appeal to the poor and dispossessed, millions of previous non-voters will register and vote for their economic self-interest, and the blue wave will swamp everything in its path.

Right.  It’s a great theory, but it never actually works.  If you don’t believe me, just ask Bernie why Hillary beat him in 2016.  The millions of new blue voters simply never materialize.

There is an analogous train of thought within the more extreme elements of the GOP, as was demonstrated when Steve Bannon and the RNC started to blast the Koch brothers.  Bannon’s grand strategy for hanging on to power appears to be as follows:

1.  Pump up the base, which consists of the Reactionary plurality within the GOP and any PBPs who are grateful for the tax cut and deregulation.  Everyone else, including independents and disgruntled Republicans, can jump in a lake for all he cares.

2.  Suppress the opposition vote through state legislation, clever gerrymandering, and negative ads.

3.  Hope the Democrats implode and make everything much easier.

That sounds more like a wish list than a strategy.  In addition, it relies on creating and sustaining divisions within the country that are extremely unhealthy.

The fact is that, while Trump’s white working class base gets all of the attention, he won in 2016 because millions of GOP voters who were suspicious of him voted for him, anyway, because they disliked Hillary even more.  Those are the voters who will decide the 2018 and 2020 elections.  Base mobilization, by itself, is not enough to win national elections.

 

I’ve never interviewed Barack Obama, and I probably never will.  If I did, however, it would probably run something like this:

I enter his office, where he is waiting.

C:  Good morning, Mr. President!  Thanks for agreeing to meet with me.

O:  It’s always good to talk with a fellow lawyer.

C:  It’s interesting that you say that, because the thrust of one of my posts was that you approached foreign policy issues in the manner of a litigation attorney–you were always looking for the fastest, cheapest, and least risky way to deal with them.

O:  There’s probably something to that.

C:  My plan is to handle this in two parts.  In the first part, I’ll be asking questions about domestic politics.  Then we’ll take a break, and then come back and talk about foreign policy and the current state of the country.

O:  OK.

C:  I’d like to start by asking you a deceptively simple question:  why did you run for president in 2008?  You certainly don’t come across as someone who needs power to boost his ego, and there were other candidates in the race with better paper qualifications.

O:  Chuckles slightly.  I thought the country needed me.  I thought I had a unique ability to bring the parties together.  I thought Hillary, for all of her good qualities, was a divisive figure, and I figured I had a better chance to bring the country together.

C:  At the risk of sounding like Sarah Palin, how’s that working out for ya?

O:  With a wry smile.  Obviously, my efforts to bring the country together were a failure.  There’s nothing about my presidency that I regret more than that.

C:  Why do you think that happened?  Was there anything you could have done, but didn’t?

O:  Well, a few of my comments, like the “bitter” line, were a mistake.  Mostly, however, I underestimated the cynicism of my opponents, and how hard the job was.

C:  My theory is that everything about you–and I don’t just mean being an African-American–didn’t play well with rural America.  You were cool, well-educated, and cosmopolitan.  You liked Jay-Z.  You were quintessentially urban.  There was nothing you could do about that.

O:  There’s probably something to that, too.

C:  Did you perceive that you had any major policy differences with Hillary?

O:  No.  On the one issue we did have, the individual mandate, I wound up agreeing with her.  It was all a matter of personalities and approaches to government, not policy.

C:  If she had been elected in 2008 instead of you, do you think the country would be very different today?

O:  Probably not, although our approaches to foreign policy were somewhat different.

C:  Let’s move forward to 2009.  I have always thought that the auto company bailout had to be one of your most difficult decisions, because it didn’t touch anything that you discussed during the campaign, and there was no template for it.  Do you agree?

O:  Absolutely.   All of my instincts told me not to do it.  On the other hand, it was clear that if the car companies failed, millions of jobs were going to disappear, and if we learned one thing from FDR, it was that you had to throw away the rulebook and be willing to try unusual things to keep the country afloat in a crisis.  That’s what we did, and I don’t regret it.  The recession might have turned into a genuine depression if we had taken the easy route and done nothing.

C:  I personally view the bailout as a huge accomplishment.  The country didn’t even lose much money on it.  Do you agree?

O:  Yes, absolutely.  Although it just encouraged Fox News to call me a socialist.

C:  Then there’s the stimulus.  You know that people like Paul Krugman are critical of you for not advocating a much larger stimulus.  How do you respond to that?

O:  If we had had better information about the state of the economy in real time, and if we had had GOP support for a greater stimulus, then he would have a point.  Neither of those things was true.  We did the best we could under the actual conditions we had.

C:  Were you surprised at the lack of GOP support for your agenda?

O:  Yes.  I knew about McConnell’s statement about making me a one-term president, but I really thought the Republicans would learn something from the election and work with me to solve our problems.  Obviously, that didn’t happen.

C:  In retrospect, should you have been tougher with them earlier on?

O:  Not in 2009.  My brand, as it were, was to bring the country together.  It would have been hypocritical of me to turn into a partisan before I tried everything else.  Besides, I actually believed what I said in the campaign.  You can make a case that I should have been tougher on them after 2010, though.

C:  What do you think about the process of approving ACA, in retrospect?  Could it have been done more smoothly?

O:  I’m sure we made some mistakes, but the bottom line is that passing important legislation is an inherently messy business.  Just look at the mess that the Republicans have made on health care and tax reform.

C:  Is there anything you would like to change about the legislation itself?

O:  It would have been better with a public option, but that wasn’t possible.  The votes weren’t there.

C:  Some critics have suggested that it was a mistake to spend so much energy on health care so early in the process.  Do you agree, in retrospect?

O:  No.  Health care was, and is, a huge issue for working and middle class people in this country.  The Democratic Party has been determined to fix it since Truman was president.  I don’t regret making it such a high priority.  It made a difference in the lives of lots of people.

C:  Any regrets about cap-and-trade?

O:  I’m afraid it’s a problem without a practical solution.  The GOP won’t vote for it because it’s a regulation, and it affects the financial interests of their core supporters.  Democrats from energy-producing states won’t vote for it, because it would be political suicide.  The two put together are an unbeatable force.

C:  My guess is that you’re proud of what you did with energy investments and regulations.  Am I right about that?

O:  In the big picture, I’m afraid we didn’t do nearly enough to deal with climate change.  That said, I pushed the envelope as far as I could, and I think the investments and regulations helped.  I don’t think Trump can reverse that, no matter how hard he tries.

C:  Were you surprised by the outcome of the 2010 election?

O:  Mildly, yes.  But change is hard, and the economic improvement was slower that we wanted.  In retrospect, it wasn’t really surprising at all.

C:  Let’s talk about the Grand Bargain.  The current theory is that the deficit doesn’t matter, and that the whole idea of entitlement reform was a big political mistake, because it demoralized the base.  Do you agree?

O:  People say that today because the Social Security and Medicare trust funds aren’t broke yet, and because interest rates are still low.  We’re not paying a price for the deficit yet.  That won’t last forever, and then what?  The issue may be sleeping, but it’s not dead.  Plus, we would have gotten some badly-needed infrastructure improvements out of the deal.  I would try it again.

C:  Did anything about the 2012 election surprise you?

O:  I wasn’t surprised that Romney was the nominee.  I admit that I was taken aback when I called him out for lying about his tax plan during the first debate, and it didn’t work.  Other than that, no.

C:  If Romney had won in 2012, we would probably be in his second term today, instead of Trump’s first.  Would the country be better off?

O:  Much as I hate to admit it, you could make a case for that.  Romney would have been competent, and he wouldn’t have tried to split the country apart.

C:  Your second term was characterized mostly by unilateral action in the face of legislative gridlock and inaction.  You have been criticized for Caesarism for doing that.  How do you respond?

O:  I learned two things from my first term.  One, the only way you could get Republicans to do anything positive was to create leverage.  And two, doing nothing just demoralized my supporters–it didn’t win any goodwill from the other side.  And so I pushed the envelope as far as I could.  But we always tried to stay within the limits of the law.

C:  Are you concerned today that those efforts helped open the door for the right-wing equivalent?

O:  Yes, but what else was I supposed to do?  Watch the dream wither and die?  Be Herbert Hoover?  That’s not me.

C:  With that, it’s time to take a break.