The first phase of the war is nearly over; Assad has regained control over virtually all of the urbanized areas in the west, and the IS “caliphate” is just about finished. Humanitarian, political, and great power issues loom. Here are the major issues, with my predictions:
1. Will Israel engage in a major shooting war with Iran? No. Netanyahu’s end game is to fight Iran to the last American, not the last Israeli. He’s just a few months away from getting his wish. Why screw it up now?
2. Will the Turks succeed in setting up a small buffer state in north Syria? Yes. The Kurds don’t have the military clout to stop them, and the other major powers don’t care.
3. Will Assad succeed in regaining effective control over the entire country? Doubtful. The Russians have already accomplished their objectives; they aren’t going to subsidize wars in the desert that create the potential for conflict with the Americans. Iran and Hezbollah are already stretched to the limit. There is only so much he can do on his own.
4. Will America fight, negotiate, or withdraw? It’s Trump, so who knows? Probably all three at once.