Projecting 2018: The Middle East

Hold on to your hat; it’s going to be an exciting (mostly not in a good way) year in the Middle East, including the following:

1.  Lebanon:  Will the Israelis invade?  (I’ve been predicting that for years, but it hasn’t happened yet; Netanyahu appears to want the US to solve his Hezbollah problem for him by going to war with Iran.  This could be the year, though.)

2.  Israel:  Will Netanyahu survive his legal issues?  (Don’t know)  Will the government continue its slow march to a one-state “solution?”  (Yes.)

3.  Egypt:  Will the government get a better handle on terrorism?  (No.)  Will it liberalize?  (No.)

4.  Saudi Arabia:  Will the MBS reforms survive, or will they be overwhelmed by a backlash?  (The latter, but it may not be in 2018)

5.  Yemen:  Will the parties be driven to negotiations by misery and exhaustion?  (Maybe)

6.  Iran:  War with the US?  (Yes.)

7.  Iraq:  Can the government figure out a way to get the Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites to work together?  (Doubtful.)

8.  Syria:  Can an acceptable political solution be reached?  (Doubtful.)