If you liked 2017, you’re going to love 2018 in Asia. Here are the biggest stories:
1. Peace or war in Korea? Trump will attack North Korea if he feels his credibility as the baddest man on the planet is at stake, or if he thinks the alternative is humiliation. He’s fairly good at spinning his failures, so war isn’t a done deal, but it most definitely could happen, and nukes could be involved.
2. Will Kim do something big to disrupt the Olympics? Probably not. The attention of the world is already on his country, and offending South Korea is bad policy, at least for now.
3. A trade war with China? It certainly appears to be on the horizon. How far it will go remains to be seen.
4. Return of the fill islands! Trump has made it clear (as if we didn’t already know it) that he was backing off China in the hope of obtaining more help with North Korea. If the help doesn’t materialize, and it probably won’t, expect some tough talk about freedom of navigation at the very least.