The tax cut bill resembles the various Obamacare repeal bills in the following ways:
1. The fundamental premises of the bills were lies. In the case of Obamacare repeal, the GOP promised legislation that would provide more and better insurance even though the party’s actual position was to require people to have more “skin in the game.” With the tax cut, the lie is that the bill is directed at the middle class; it isn’t.
2. The bills were rushed through the system in an effort to head off opposition. This tactic appears to be fairly successful, and will probably be emulated by the Democrats in the future.
3. The bills were hideously unpopular with the public, but moved forward, anyway. The GOP apparently decided that failure to produce a product was more politically damaging than producing a product that hurts millions of Americans, many of them GOP voters.
4. The bills have the support of the PBP and Reactionary factions of the GOP. In the case of the PBPs, the motive, of course, was tax cuts. The Reactionaries wanted Obamacare repeal because it would deprive millions of undeserving poor people, many of them minorities, of an ill-gotten government benefit. They don’t stand to gain much from the huge tax cut for plutocrats, but at least it will be a “win” for their guy, which, apparently, is enough.
5. The potential opponents are the same. The CD and CL factions of the GOP have equal and opposite issues with both bills. The CLs are concerned about deficits and excessive government regulation; the CDs are concerned that the bills hurt poor people in the interests of the wealthy.
6. The bills are jury-rigged pieces of legislation designed to meet Senate rules and get 51 votes; they make little sense from a policy perspective. No elaboration is required.
In the case of Obamacare repeal, Dudley Do-Right managed to free the damsel in distress from the railroad tracks just in the nick of time. Will that happen with the tax bill? I’m guessing not, in which case the GOP will have to live with the consequences of its success, which probably won’t be pretty.
One last word on the subject: the donor class is happy with the tax bill, as it should be, but the benefits to rich people revolve primarily around rising share prices. What happens if the market falls for other reasons? Then even the principal recipients of the bill won’t gain anything, and the bill will be a failure even as a quid pro quo.