Bibi’s Choice

As I’ve noted previously, Netanyahu had an opportunity to crush Hezbollah while it was engaged in Syria, but he turned it down, presumably in the belief that a war involving two enemies only worked to his advantage.  However, Assad and his friends have broken the stalemate and won the war.  As a result, Hezbollah is now more of a threat than ever.

The latest odd events involving the Lebanese government have made it clear that Saudi Arabia is perfectly willing to provide diplomatic cover for an Israeli invasion of Lebanon in the Sunni world.  There is nothing to stop the Israelis from using all of Lebanon as a battlefield.  The Trump Administration presumably can keep Iran from intervening directly by promising fire and fury. That means the way is clear for a fight to the finish with Hezbollah.

Will Netanyahu take the bait?  He has the reputation of being a human steamroller in the US, but he has preferred to limit his military actions to the gnat that is Hamas and to use political influence to force the US to solve his Iran problem.  This would be a completely different ball game.   Having said that, south Lebanon is a bit like the West Bank in reverse;  the facts on the ground don’t favor Israel, and are getting worse.  Sooner or later, something will have to be done;  it’s just a question of time.