The Reactionaries and the PBPs were all in for all of the Obamacare repeal bills: the Reactionaries because it meant taking benefits away from the undeserving poor; and the PBPs because it was a tax cut and deregulation measure. Ultimately, the bills were sunk by an alliance of Democrats, CDs, and CLs; the first two didn’t think that taking insurance away from millions of Americans was a great idea, and the last didn’t think the bills went far enough in that direction.
Could the same thing happen again with the tax cut? If the tax cut were part of a budget bill that included massive spending cuts, yes, but that will not be the case. Rand Paul will vote for a tax cut bill that is decoupled from spending issues, and, I suspect, so will Susan Collins, who will be under pressure to prove she isn’t a RINO.
The real issue with the tax cut is whether the GOP can finesse the state and local tax and 401(k) issues to the point where they can get enough votes to pass the bill. A tax cut bill which actually raises the taxes of millions of GOP voters for the benefit of plutocrats will be a hard sell. My guess is that the analysis behind the bill will contain enough magic asterisks to permit compromises on these issues, and the bill will ultimately be approved, thereby creating the “Funhouse Reagan” economic scenario I predicted at the beginning of the year.