When I consider the prospects for an independent Kurdistan, I think of the following precedents:
- The French Republic in 1792.
- Israel in 1948.
- Poland in the late 18th century.
France was a reasonable match, in terms of population, economic strength, and military might, for its adversaries in 1792, so that analogy won’t really work. You’re left with the relatively miraculous survival of Israel and the dismemberment of Poland as the realistic analogies.
Israel was a very, very special case. I don’t see any plausible future for an independent Kurdistan, even though it would meet my criteria for secession, without vigorous material and diplomatic support from the United States. That clearly is not happening; the Trump Administration, like its predecessors, prefers a united Iraq even if it is subject to Iranian influence. Whether that is a wise decision under the current circumstances is definitely open to debate.