Trump really, really wants a war. Bibi and the Saudis will egg him on in their own interest. Mattis will enable it, because he hates the Iranians. Congress won’t stop it, and the base will accept it as long as we fight to “win.” So it’s inevitable.
But what will it look like? Here are some critical questions and answers:
1. When will it start? Mattis will put it off until we’re finished with North Korea. Reasonably enough, he won’t want to deal with two crises at once.
2. How will it start? I predicted months ago that it would be a naval incident. I still think that is the most likely precipitant, but there are other possibilities: some sort of armed clash in Syria; a ballistic missile test; something involving Hezbollah and Israel.
3. Will we have any support from our allies? Only from Israel and the Sunni despots. Otherwise, we will be completely isolated.
4. Will it involve a ground invasion? No. That would be too hard, bloody, and expensive. Trump’s idea of a war is a bomb, a parade, and a statue, not what happened in Iraq.
5. What will our war aims be? Initially, this will probably be an Israeli-style exercise in “cutting the grass.” The key, unanswered question is whether it can be limited to that. It will depend largely on the Iranians.
6. Could nuclear weapons be used? In the immortal words of Sarah Palin, you betcha! Trump would love the idea of being the first leader in history to annihilate an entire country using nukes. It would prove that he was the biggest and baddest man of all time! Believe me. Believe me.