Donald Trump needs a successful war–now. To the rest of the world, he looks like a bumbling, bombastic, corrupt loser–a man on golf cart. A successful war would change all that; it would shut up his critics, give him leverage over Congress, and, most of all, make him look like the winner that he knows that he is. He might even get a big parade with jet fighters and tanks out of it.
So a war it surely must be. But where? North Korea is the obvious choice, and still might happen, but it appears for now that the thought of hundreds of thousands of South Korean dead have deterred him. The logical second option is Iran.
There are lots of advantages to fighting Iran. The Sunni despot alliance and Israel would be delighted. Crushing Iran would make dealing with Syria and Iraq much easier. The American public hates the Iranians. And, most importantly, Iran’s ability to retaliate is far less impressive than North Korea’s.
Sure, the price of oil would skyrocket, but American producers would be able to make up at least some of the difference, and it wouldn’t matter that much if the victory could be won quickly. The question then is, what would the objective of the war be? A few bombs and a parade? Regime change? The complete annihilation of the country?
The last question is the one I can’t answer. It would be up to the man on golf cart. Expect the worst.