Trump’s Sunni despot alliance at least has the advantage of being logically coherent. On its face, it promises stability and a united front against Iran.
But will it actually work? The Middle East is a complicated place, to put it mildly. The following questions inevitably arise:
- How can we really confront Iran when we are de facto allies fighting IS in Iraq?
- What does the Sunni alliance mean for our relationship with the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government? Are we just going to turn our backs on our former client state?
- Leaving aside our historic animosity, what American interests are really being threatened by Iran?
- To what extent are we willing to take military action against Iran, and what are the implications of that for oil markets and the world economy?
- What happens if, say, Egypt blows up? Are we going to send troops to put down revolutionary activity there? Would the American people really stand for that?
At best, you have to hope that Trump will be as flexible and transactional in his relations with his new friends as he is in most other things. The world in general, and the Middle East in particular, is not a static place, and we will have to adjust to future events as they occur.