Unlike Trump, Mitt Romney is unquestionably sane and competent. I didn’t vote for him, and I make no apologies for that, but I couldn’t help wondering whether we would be better off today if he had won in 2012 and been reelected in 2016.
It’s a close call. Here’s my analysis, on an issue-by-issue basis:
1. Obamacare revisions: Romney was ideally suited to build a bridge between his party and the Democrats, given his history with the issue. My guess is that it would have been possible to come up with a scheme which provided more flexibility to states that operated in good faith to find alternatives, but otherwise kept Obamacare in place. If so, the issue would have been put to bed by now.
2. Taxing and spending: There would have been no tax increase on the wealthy, and defense spending might have increased somewhat, but there would have been no dramatic changes.
3. Environmental issues: Little would have been accomplished, but the government would not have been run by climate change deniers.
4. Iraq, Syria, and IS: Public opinion would have prevented any large scale military interventions in this part of the Middle East. Romney was more interested in domestic policy, anyway. We might have taken a somewhat stronger line against Assad, but we wouldn’t have gone to war with him.
5. The Iran deal: It wouldn’t have happened. Instead, Netanyahu would have persuaded Romney to join him in “cutting the grass.” We would be at war with Iran today. Gas prices would be much higher.
6. Russia: Romney might have sent more weapons to Ukraine, but that is not a certainty, since he would have understood that Putin would escalate to match us, and then some. Otherwise, no change.
7. The Supreme Court: Someone like Gorsuch would have been nominated and approved with minimal fuss in 2016. The Supreme Court filibuster would still be in place, for whatever that’s worth.
8. China: We might have been more aggressive in our opposition to the fill islands. Otherwise, no change.
On the whole, we would have been a bit worse off on January 19 than we actually were, but we would not have been looking at President Trump the next day. How do you balance past gains with future dangers? You decide.