The next few years in the UK will, of course, be dominated by Brexit and its collateral damage, both economic and constitutional. By 2020, however, the Brexit process will presumably be over. What will the political landscape look like at that point?
The Conservatives will win a huge majority at the next election. Since Labour will, for all intents and purposes, be dead, all of the real opposition will be found within the Conservative Party itself, which will no longer be subject to any effective discipline (that, presumably, is the reason Theresa May hasn’t called for an early election). Infighting among hard and soft Brexiteers is likely to become ugly, particularly if the economy starts to struggle. That is when things will start to get interesting.
My prediction is that the two-party system will return, but the parties will look different, particularly if the Scots vote for independence (the subject of tomorrow’s post). The opposition party will look, not like today’s outdated version of the Labour Party, but more like the Democratic Party in the US; its support will come primarily from the London area, and it will promote a dynamic, open, multi-cultural society, as opposed to the nostalgic fish-and-chips world of the hard Brexiteers.
The New Democrats will fight for as close a relationship as possible with Europe. In the long run, I think they will win, because the demographics of the Brexit vote suggest that time is on their side.