There was, to be sure, a reasonable case for immediately confronting North Korea: all of the peaceful efforts by previous administrations had failed to change the regime’s behavior; the regime’s efforts to build an ICBM were dangerously close to success; and no one could be sure that Kim Jong Un could be effectively deterred once he had a weapon in hand. Nonetheless, in keeping with his essential character, Trump saw the war primarily as a cheap way to gain popularity and stifle criticism in light of his domestic failures and low poll numbers.
In March, Trump sent a message to the Chinese and North Koreans. The essence of it was that North Korea must agree to dismantle its nuclear program within a month or face annihilation. That could be done in any number of ways, including turning it over to the Chinese, but the demand was not negotiable. The North Koreans, of course, refused the ultimatum and swore to turn South Korea and Japan into lakes of fire. The Chinese also protested vigorously, but Trump ignored them, predicting that Beijing would not risk a military confrontation on behalf of such an unreliable ally. The South Koreans and Japanese just held their breath and prayed.
On the appointed day, Trump launched air strikes against the regime’s nuclear facilities. They were completely successful. He concurrently sent a message to the North Koreans and Chinese promising not to broaden the war or engage in regime change, but assuring them that all of North Korea would be turned into a cinder if the government tried to retaliate against Japan and South Korea. Lacking any concrete promises of massive military assistance from the Chinese, Kim was faced with a dilemma: lose face and deal with a potential coup; or face the destruction of his entire country. It was a close and nervewracking call, but in the end, he opted for more threats, but no action.
The war was thus contained, and was a big public relations victory for Trump, who had shown himself to be a “winner.” His poll numbers skyrocketed. The Chinese government was humiliated, and decided to retaliate by stepping up its provocative activities in the South China Sea. Trump, emboldened by his success, looked forward to a high stakes confrontation with Beijing over trade and navigational issues. A much more dangerous crisis between the superpowers loomed ahead.