Fillon was initially portrayed by the press as a French version of Mrs. Thatcher, but it appears to me that his brand of conservatism really has much deeper roots that go all the way back to the opposition to the French Revolution. Selecting him will have the following results:
1. The French left will rise again. The Socialists were demoralized by Hollande’s vacillations, but Fillon’s antipathy to organized labor and to the welfare state gives them a compelling reason to go out and vote. I doubt that it will be enough to get their candidate into the second round, but it means they should have at least a respectable showing.
2. Le Pen will be running as the left-wing candidate in the runoff. She makes the case that the welfare state is a French traditional value. There is no obvious reason why a French worker would prefer Fillon to her.
3. There is an American analogy to a Fillon/Le Pen race. Imagine if the entire American electorate ultimately had to choose between Trump and Ted Cruz. Ugh!
The bottom line is that politics in France are about to get really interesting, and really ugly. Expect lots of action out on the street in 2017 regardless of who wins.