Thoughts on the EU After the Brexit Vote

  1.  People have come to take the current state of affairs (peace, free movement, democratic governments) for granted.  They shouldn’t.
  2.  The ultimate test for the EU will be to create citizens who view themselves as Europeans–not just residents of their own countries.  The fact that young people supported Remain suggests that the European identity is making some headway, but it will take time.
  3.  The biggest single problem with the EU is the euro, because saving it has become a self-defeating end in and of itself.
  4.  Creating “more Europe” to save the euro, under the present circumstances, just means imposing German views about austerity that won’t work in most of the rest of the union with even more vigor.
  5.  The EU will survive Brexit.  It would not survive Frexit.
  6.   Instead of creating “more Europe,” the powers that be should focus more on improving the aspects of the union that have strong public support, like the single market.
  7.  The best way of dealing with the euro problem, as I have said before, is for the Germans to return to the mark.  The value of the mark would rise dramatically, thus enriching the German people.  The Germans would no longer feel obligated to bail out the rest of the EU countries, or to impose austerity on them.  The remaining euro countries would have more fiscal and monetary flexibility to deal with their structural problems.
  8.  It is much more likely that the powers that be will just continue with their half measures.  Declining to sanction Spain and Portugal is more evidence of that approach.  Will the next shoe drop in Italy?  We’ll see.