Since Trump’s only real ideology is self-worship, this campaign is going to focus largely on personal attacks from both sides. You can expect to see the following:
From the Clinton campaign:
1. Trump is a loser, not a winner. Since the whole rationale for Trump revolves around him being a winner, there will be plenty of discussion about his business failures and his privileged upbringing.
2. Trump doesn’t have the qualifications or the temperament to be President. Do you really want to live in a world in which nuclear war is viewed as a bargaining chip?
3. Trump is an obscenely rich guy who doesn’t care about working people. His comments about wages being too high at one of the debates, his tax cut plan, and his use of eminent domain will feature prominently here.
4. Nothing Trump says can be trusted. There will be plenty of evidence about lies, flip-flops, and questionable business practices.
5. Trump will take away your health insurance. That’s his plan, anyway. I suspect he will back off his latest pronouncement on the subject and just revert to his promise to replace Obamacare with “something really great.”
6. Trump is a misogynist and a bigot. No elaboration necessary.
7. Trump’s protectionist plans will be a disaster for American workers. There should be some discussion about price increases for foreign goods that are a staple of American life.
8. Trump and the GOP will launch a war on women’s rights. Trump’s list of potential Supreme Court nominees will be important here.
Trump will respond with the following:
1. Hillary is a warmonger who will drag us into pointless conflicts in the Middle East. The evidence to support this: the Iraq War vote and Libya.
2. Hillary enabled her husband’s mistreatment of women. I don’t think this will resonate with anyone who doesn’t already despise her.
3. I will make great deals all over the world, based on my record as a developer. No elaboration necessary.
4. Hillary doesn’t have my business experience and thus knows nothing about creating jobs. I’ve discussed the “run government like a business” theme on several previous occasions.
5. Hillary is running for a third Obama term. We need something different. In the final analysis, this is the one that matters most.
6. Benghazi and the e-mails. Yawn.
7. I’m completely independent; Hillary is owned by big donors, especially on Wall Street. Of course, this argument is harder to sell if Trump is soliciting huge sums from GOP donors, as he almost certainly will.
When it is all said and done, the outcome of the election will ride primarily on two unresolved questions:
1. Will minorities go to the polls in large numbers to vote for a white woman out of fear of a Trump victory?
2. Are Americans so dissatisfied with the current state of events (5% unemployment, a stock market just below 18,000, no large scale conflicts, etc.) to take a chance on someone without the qualifications or temperament to be President?